¶ … Decision of Uncertainty
One of the important features of medicine is diagnostic testing. The companies that produce diagnostic tests are multi-billion dollar companies. Not only is the effectiveness of their tests important for their bottom line, but it is also important for the health and well-being of those who rely on the tests for their health. One such test important diagnostic test is the test for colorectal cancer known as the fecal occult blood test. When analyzing the effectiveness of such tests, we consider the sensitivity and the specificity of the test. In this case, the sensitivity of the test is the proportion of results that correctly identify people with colorectal cancer. In symbolic terms, P (testing positive | have colorectal cancer). The specificity is the proportion of tests that correctly identify those people who do not have colorectal cancer. Symbolically, it is P (testing negative | do not have colorectal cancer).
In reality, we are very interested in the probability having the disease given that you tested positive. That is, we are interested in the false alarm rate. This is important from a treatment perspective,...
A combination of techniques was used to evaluate, the most important being Bayes Theorem. Bayes Theorem "In its simplest algebraic form, Bayes' theorem is concerned with determining the conditional probability of event A given that event B. has occurred." (Kazmier, Staton & Fulks, 2003; p. 43). In this case, the event A is the increase in sales through the e-commerce site while event B. is the implementing of the decision to create
46). Likewise, Gillispie suggests that an incremental approach can be used to "test the waters" for even very small companies seeking to project an internationalized presence. In this regard, Gillespie recommends that companies, "Craft a scaleable master design that represents the major aspects of your business worldwide and anticipates the degree of localization that will be required in each market. The degree of localization can have a real impact
76). As automation increasingly assumes the more mundane and routine aspects of work of all types, Drucker was visionary in his assessment of how decisions would be made in the years to come. "In the future," said Drucker, "it was possible that all employment would be managerial in nature, and we would then have progressed from a society of labor to a society of management" (Witzel, p. 76). The
Employee Discipline and the Decision-Making Process Decisions are a part of each day for everyone on earth. Some of these decisions are small and in significant, such as what to eat for breakfast. While others are quite complex and one has to weigh the costs and benefits of the decision. The possible outcomes must be weighed and the solution chosen which has the most benefits and fewest costs. Business managers make
Results from the study by Petersen, Ragatz and Monczka show that effective collaborative planning depends on information quality, and the trust level firms share. The authors purport: "Collaborative planning activities between supply chain partners are expected to lead to better performing supply chains" (Petersen, Ragatz & Monczka, Introduction section ¶ 1). In addition, numerous other researchers have also explored the perception relating to supplier alliances, that enhanced collaborative planning
The most general critical thinking strategy involves the following steps, outlined by Cohen et al. (2000). First, we propose certain statements or hypotheses. For example, I have written down my thoughts at this stage in the decision-making process if I have too many ideas. Second, we need to think of or actively solicit counter-arguments. We need alternative explanations for our observations. So in my situation, I need to brainstorm
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